Key Takeaways
- C-suite executives require clear data to evaluate SEO’s value.
- Marketing leaders should leverage ROI forecasts to justify SEO investment.
- Track key metrics, such as search volume, traffic, and conversions to build an ROI forecast.
- Utilize current data to estimate 6- and 12-month traffic growth, and show potential SEO impact.
Every dollar spent on SEO must deliver a tangible result – the sooner the better. Yet, SEO campaigns take time to mature. Often, results aren’t clear for months.
Meanwhile, executives wait for the expected return on their SEO investment. No wonder leaders often prefer to invest in channels with more predictable timelines and forecastable results.
Unfortunately, without leadership buy-in, your SEO campaigns will starve for resources and consistently fail to launch.
Predicting ROI from organic search has always proven difficult. Emerging generative AI search engines and the threat of zero-click searches are rapidly changing the calculus of SEO.
How do you convince leadership to back your SEO campaigns?
Our experience suggests three critical aspects: identify achievable results, choose the right metrics, and craft a plan focused on resource constraints.
This step-by-step guide offers practical strategies for predicting the ROI of your SEO campaigns. These strategies will enable you to craft a convincing case for SEO investment and secure buy-in from your leadership team.
To get there, we’ll help you answer these questions:
- How do I create a quantitative case for SEO?
- How do I align SEO investment with business goals?
- What metrics should I track to effectively measure SEO?
- How do I demonstrate impact on multichannel conversions?
- What analyses and visuals effectively communicate the long-term value of SEO?
After decades of SEO campaign experience, we wouldn’t dare recommend SEO without gathering data, researching competing campaigns, and presenting a forecast based on hard numbers.
Let’s get started.
5 Steps to Building a Data-Driven Business Case for SEO
Step 1: Identify Key Metrics
When developing a quantitative case for SEO, start by identifying the key metrics you want to measure and forecast. Some SEO metrics are helpful, some are not. Therefore, it’s imperative to choose metrics that align with your leadership’s primary business goals.
We recommend considering the following metrics:
Metric: Organic Conversion Rate
Measure how often your organic traffic converts into sales or leads. To estimate your expected conversion rate, apply historical organic traffic performance in GA4.
If you’re unable to estimate the expected conversion rate with analytics data, be sure to revisit the estimate when more data becomes available. In the meantime, we have found that 1.5% serves as a useful, accurate conversion rate for many industries.
Remember, your actual organic conversion rate may vary widely from page to page, so choose an average for now.
Metric: Monthly Search Volume (Non-branded)
This metric shows how often relevant searches happen without your brand name. Why is this useful? Simple: Monthly Search Volume highlights market opportunity. Use Google Search Console to obtain this metric.
Metric: Percentage of Total Search Volume Captured
This reveals how much of the available market your SEO is reaching, allowing you to effectively gauge growth potential. To calculate this metric, choose a tool such as Ahrefs to determine the total monthly search volume for all ranking keywords and organic traffic.
Or, to be more accurate, use Google Search Console and obtain your site’s total impressions over the past 12 months. Then, divide this number by 12.
Formula:
Percentage of total search volume captured = (Current monthly organic traffic / Total monthly search volume)
Metric: Organic Traffic
Organic traffic shows the direct impact of SEO on your site’s visibility and effectiveness at attracting visitors without paid ads. Track this via GA4 (filtered for organic traffic only) or Google Search Console. To determine average monthly organic traffic, collect data over the last 12 months and divide by 12.
Metric: Total Monthly Leads or Revenue
The Total Monthly Leads or Revenue metric links SEO performance to financial outcomes, helping decision-makers see the value. Measure it using the number of leads or revenue generated through SEO.
Overall, these baseline metrics are vital for predictive SEO ROI models. While other metrics or data may be important to your management team –such as engagement rate, 1st page keyword rankings, or share of traffic – identifying key metrics is the place to start.
Step 2: Gather Supplemental Data
Beyond the metrics mentioned above, supplemental data can be leveraged to strengthen your quantitative pitch for SEO investment. Examples of supplemental data include:
1. Highlight a Successful Competitor
If your company focuses on outperforming specific competitors in search results, it’s helpful to incorporate them into your pitch. Use keyword research tools to identify your competitors’ estimated monthly traffic, traffic value, total ranking keywords, and keywords in the top three positions. This gives your leadership team a clear target to aim for with a future SEO campaign.
Focus on the high-value, purchase-intent keywords your competitors are ranking for, as these drive more leads and revenue compared to informational keywords. For example, if a competitor ranks #1 for “best places to live in Florida,” that may generate traffic, but not many leads. However, a keyword like “mortgage rate calculator” has stronger purchase intent, making it more valuable for increasing ROI.
2. Measure the ROI of Your Existing Traffic
Evaluate your current traffic’s ROI to identify which search intents convert well and can be scaled. Many SEO strategies emphasize blog content to drive traffic, but not all blogs convert into leads or revenue. If your content primarily focuses on informational keywords, it might not be contributing much to the bottom line.
The rise of generative AI, such as tools like Gemini and ChatGPT, or AI-powered search features like Featured Snippets and AI Overviews, has further reduced the value of informational content. To boost ROI, SEO campaigns must go beyond informational keywords.
Use GA4 to pinpoint which of your pages drive the most conversions. Then, look for trends in the types of pages and topics that perform best. If, for example, product category pages (ex. “White Running Sneakers”) deliver a higher ROI than blog content, focus your SEO efforts on creating more category pages in your pitch.
3. Analyze Your Google Ads Search Terms Report
Most companies fail to realize they already possess valuable data that can guide their SEO strategy. Google Ads Search Terms reports, for instance, reveal keywords that drive clicks and conversions.
Google Ads Search Terms Report (source: Surfside PPC)
If you find certain keywords generate a high conversion rate through paid search, organically targeting those same keywords may yield similar results without the ongoing ad spend. This data can also help predict the number of conversions that can be generated by targeting adjacent keywords with similar search intent.
By analyzing these types of supplemental data, you gain valuable insights into what search terms already work for your business. This improves the predictability of an SEO campaign’s potential ROI.
Step 3: Model ROI Scenarios
There are several ways to model ROI, but we’ll guide you through the approach that works best during our discovery process.
1. Calculate Your Traffic Baseline
Start by measuring your current traffic performance using tools like GA4 and Google Search Console.
- Percentage of Total Search Volume Captured: Apply this formula to calculate how much of the total search volume your site captures: Percentage of total search volume captured = (Monthly organic traffic / Monthly search volume of all ranking keywords)
- Non-Branded Search Volume: Use Google Search
- Monthly Organic Traffic and Leads/Conversions: Use GA4 (for traffic and leads/conversion metrics) or Google Search Console (for traffic metrics) to determine these metrics for your site. Identify site traffic and leads/conversions over the past 12 months and divide by 12 to determine the average monthly metrics.
- Expected Conversion Rate: Use this formula to determine your expected conversion rate based on traffic and monthly leads: Expected conversion rate = (Total monthly leads or conversions / Monthly organic traffic)
2. Calculate 6-Month Projected Traffic
Once you have a baseline, calculate traffic projections for the next six months:
- Percentage of Total Search Volume Captured: For six months, we estimate capturing 1% of the total search volume. This is a conservative estimate that can be adjusted based on your historical data.
- Non-Branded Search Volume: Use the same non-branded search volume from the baseline.
- Organic Traffic: Multiply the estimated 1% of total search volume by the non-branded search volume to calculate projected organic traffic.
- Conversion Rate: We recommend using a conservative rate of 1.5%, as non-branded traffic typically converts at a lower rate than branded traffic.
- Monthly Leads or Revenue: Calculate projected leads using this formula:
Projected leads = Baseline leads + (Projected organic traffic * Conversion rate)
For revenue:
Projected revenue = Baseline revenue + (Projected organic traffic * Conversion rate * Average revenue per conversion)
3. Calculate 12-Month Projected Traffic
For 12-month projections, repeat the steps above, but increase the Percentage of Total Search Volume Captured to 2%. This reflects the cumulative impact of ongoing SEO efforts over a longer period.
Once your scenarios are modeled, package and present the information to effectively communicate the data to your leadership team.
Step 4: Package and Present the Forecast
1. Summarize Key Information Clearly
When presenting the forecast, concisely highlight the most important insights. Provide a high-level overview that covers key metrics, such as projected traffic growth, conversion rate improvements, and expected increases in leads or revenue over six and 12 months. We recommend focusing on:
- Current traffic baseline vs. projected traffic growth
- Expected increase in leads or revenue
- ROI projections based on both historical and forecasted data
Incorporate bullet points to make the information easy for leadership to quickly understand.
2. Connect the Forecast to Strategic Priorities
Similar to investment planning, where decisions are driven by balancing risk with return, your SEO forecast should link directly to your company’s overall business goals.
If the goal is to increase market share, demonstrate how capturing a larger search traffic share will support that goal. If revenue growth is a top priority, focus on how the projected leads and conversions will contribute to meeting those targets.
By framing SEO as a long-term, strategic investment – similar to a financial portfolio – you can guide leadership toward seeing how SEO aligns with their objectives and long-term success.
3. Use Effective Visuals and a Strong Narrative
Visuals are crucial for making complex data more digestible. We recommend the following visuals:
- Graphs and Charts: Show traffic growth, conversion rates, and ROI projections.
- Comparative Tables: Display side-by-side comparisons of baseline and projected metrics.
- Infographics: Condense key takeaways into visual summaries to reinforce main points.
To get the most out of visuals, combine graphics and tables with a strong narrative. Emphasize how SEO efforts will not only contribute to short-term growth, but also position the company for sustainable success.
Unlike paid marketing channels, where results stop when spending stops, SEO continues to deliver results even after investment stops. The effort put into SEO can continue benefiting your business for years to come.
Highlighting this point persuades leadership to see SEO as an investment that grows over time, like a well-managed financial portfolio.
Step 5: Implement a Feedback Loop
Tracking actual results against your forecast is key to understanding how well your SEO efforts perform. It’s also key for keeping executives committed to the long-term, incremental growth process that SEO inherently requires.
By comparing the real data with what you originally predicted, you can gauge where results are on track or where adjustments are needed. If results don’t match your forecasts, tweak your strategy by targeting different keywords and/or improving your website content.
Over time, applying this data to fine-tune your approach will improve prediction accuracy and ensure you earn the most from your SEO investment.
Expected Results and Impact
A quantitative approach to pitching SEO builds confidence with your executive team. By establishing clear, measurable SEO campaign goals, you will boost accountability and remain focused on what matters most: driving revenue and tangible business growth.
This approach also serves as an effective reminder to leadership that a revenue-focused SEO strategy doesn’t only increase organic traffic and revenue; it improves your site’s performance across all channels. By incorporating CRO, building trust, and improving content quality, SEO positively impacts other acquisition channels, such as paid ads, email marketing, and social media.
The more value your pitch demonstrates, the easier it will be to obtain buy-in across the board.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, building a data-driven case for SEO is essential to gaining leadership buy-in and driving long-term business growth. By following the five steps we’ve outlined in this guide, you’ll be fully equipped to present a compelling case to your C-Suite.
This will prove great for you and your department, as it will likely secure the investment needed to be effective in your role.
It will also be great for your executives, as they will walk away with increased confidence in their SEO strategy and understand how to measure and iterate over time.
Most of all, utilizing this approach will enable your organization to adopt a robust and adaptable approach to SEO that remains effective as the landscapes of SGE, Gen AI, and technology at large evolves in unpredictable ways.
Ultimately, SEO is a long-term investment that continues to deliver value long after active efforts have ceased, making it a critical element of a sustainable marketing strategy. With a data-driven business case and a strategic approach for pitching to your organization’s leadership, you will have everything necessary to secure SEO investment, and drive meaningful, long-term business growth.
Let Fire&Spark help you …
1. Schedule an SEO strategy session: Talk with a Fire&Spark strategist about building and pitching your organic customer acquisition campaigns. Schedule a strategy session.
2. Dive deeper into SEO for Revenue: Fire&Spark’s SEO for Revenue Guide explains how to update your SEO strategies to optimize for sales and conversions, not just rankings and traffic. This mindset shift is crucial for adapting to changes in search. Get the guide.
3. Request a generative AI search audit: Our team would be happy to take a look at your site and help you forecast the effect of generative AI search and Google’s AI overviews on your top-of-funnel organic traffic. Request an audit.
